It is clear that new iPhones are not selling nearly as good as they used to in the past. When it comes to iPhone X, which has yet to be released, things could be even worse for Apple due to production issues. According to KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, the so-called "supercycle" won't truly gain momentum until 2018 due to multiple factors.
The reason for this is because TrueDepth Camera's production issues will be significantly addressed in 2018 and he also believes new iPhone models launched in 2018 will enjoy a longer sales period than those unveiled in 2017.
The market generally refers to 2017 as the super cycle of the iPhone, but we think the real super cycle will be in 2018 for the following reasons: (1) TrueDepth Camera's production issues will be significantly addressed in 2018F; (2) new models launched in 2018F will enjoy a longer sales period than those unveiled in 2017; and (3) the product mix, specifications and designs of new iPhone models from 2018F will be more competitive. We estimate that for 2017, iPhone shipments will come in at 210-220mn units, which should grow to be 245-255mn units in 2018.